Casino
Crash Game Probability Calculator
Explore a stated crash-game survival model and target multiplier, calculate threshold probability and expected return, and see why it cannot predict a round.
Your result
49.50%
Threshold survival probability in stated model
- Winning return
- $20.00
- Expected net
- −$0.10
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Illustrative survival function P(M≥x)=(1−h)/x, not an operator-specific algorithm or predictor.
A specified crash multiplier model
This tool uses the explicit illustrative survival function P(M ≥ x) = (1−h)/x for x ≥ 1. With h = 1% and target x = 2, the threshold chance is 49.5%. A $10 winning settlement at 2 returns $20, while expected net is −$0.10.
This formula includes an immediate-loss probability and a specified at-least-threshold comparison. It is not universal: caps, rounding, instant crashes, comparison rules and game algorithms can change the distribution. Entering a multiplier does not establish an actual game’s probability.
The illustrative simulation independently samples target hits with the modeled chance, then shows sample frequency and average net. It resets the same assumptions for every round and does not reproduce a named operator’s random-number protocol.
Crash strategy, independence and prediction
Under this model every fixed target has the same expected return fraction, 1−h. A higher target makes a win less frequent and larger; it does not remove the edge. Previous multipliers do not reveal the next independent hidden random outcome.
A predictor, algorithm finder or secret-seed claim needs evidence that this calculator cannot provide. Read the provably fair verification guide to distinguish checking a revealed outcome from predicting an unrevealed one.